Chicken producer Pilgrim’s Pride (NASDAQ:PPC) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q1 CY2025 as sales rose 2.3% year on year to $4.46 billion. Its non-GAAP profit of $1.31 per share was 2.1% below analysts’ consensus estimates.
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Pilgrim's Pride (PPC) Q1 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $4.46 billion vs analyst estimates of $4.54 billion (2.3% year-on-year growth, 1.6% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $1.31 vs analyst expectations of $1.34 (2.1% miss)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $533.2 million vs analyst estimates of $552.8 million (11.9% margin, 3.5% miss)
- Operating Margin: 9.1%, up from 5.7% in the same quarter last year
- Free Cash Flow Margin: 0.6%, down from 3.7% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $11.06 billion
StockStory’s Take
Pilgrim’s Pride’s first quarter results were shaped by a combination of operational improvements, continued demand shifts between foodservice and retail, and sustained challenges in poultry health and production. Management attributed profitability gains to stronger performance in their Big Bird and Prepared Foods segments, as well as ongoing efficiency efforts in both U.S. and European operations. CEO Fabio Sandri highlighted, “Our performance reflects disciplined execution of our strategies…with a focus on what we can control throughout our business.”
Looking ahead, management’s forward guidance is influenced by expectations of steady retail demand, ongoing volatility in Mexico, and the timing of capacity expansions. Sandri emphasized the company’s commitment to capacity growth and product innovation, noting that investments in new plants and conversion projects will support long-term diversification. However, persistent supply-side challenges and macroeconomic uncertainties remain key variables for the rest of the year.
Key Insights from Management’s Remarks
Pilgrim’s Pride’s leadership identified operational execution, retail demand shifts, and ongoing market volatility as the most significant factors behind first quarter performance and expectations for the coming quarters.
- Retail demand shift: Management observed consumers are increasingly choosing to cook at home due to higher restaurant prices, resulting in stronger retail sales, particularly for fresh and boneless chicken cuts.
- Operational improvements in Big Bird segment: Efficiency gains and commodity market recovery contributed to higher margins in the Big Bird business, bolstered by optimized production and improved live operations despite persistent poultry health issues.
- Portfolio diversification: The company’s expansion into branded and value-added products, including Just BARE and Pilgrim’s, was highlighted as a driver of sales growth, with e-commerce channels experiencing over 35% growth.
- European restructuring and innovation: Integration of European operations and a focus on product innovation delivered margin improvements. Management cited over 80 new product launches and growing branded sales as evidence of progress beyond initial restructuring.
- Volatility in Mexico: While profitability in Mexico was steady year-over-year, significant foreign exchange headwinds and live market volatility impacted results. Management reiterated ongoing investments in new capacity and prepared foods lines, aiming for further growth and reduced volatility in this market.
Drivers of Future Performance
Management’s outlook for the remainder of the year centers on sustained retail demand, new capacity projects, and the ability to navigate industry-wide supply and health challenges.
- Capacity expansion projects: Planned investments in new plants and conversions, particularly in the U.S. and Mexico, are expected to support volume growth and product diversification, though many projects will impact results beyond next year.
- Shift in consumer behavior: The ongoing move from foodservice to retail is anticipated to support demand for fresh and prepared chicken, but management cautions that this could continue to pressure certain product categories such as wings.
- Poultry health and supply risks: Management identified risks related to poultry health, including high mortality and hatchability issues, as well as potential disease outbreaks, which may influence supply availability and cost structures in coming quarters.
Top Analyst Questions
- Ben Theurer (Barclays): Asked about the timing and drivers behind lower Q1 capital expenditures. CFO Matt Galvanoni explained the slower pace was due to permitting and site selection, with spending expected to ramp up in future quarters.
- Unidentified Analyst (BMO Capital Markets): Sought clarity on European margin expansion and consumer trends. CEO Fabio Sandri highlighted integration benefits and improved consumer confidence, though cautioned that UK market headwinds could cause short-term uncertainty.
- Heather Jones (Heather Jones Research): Inquired about U.S. production growth and volume outlook amid plant conversions. Sandri stated Pilgrim’s Pride expects to grow slightly ahead of the market, with more pronounced shifts occurring next year.
- Pooran Sharma (Stephens): Questioned the weak performance in the wings segment and cold storage trends. Sandri attributed this to reduced foodservice traffic and noted that normal seasonality should support wing prices later in the year.
- Priya Ohri-Gupta (Barclays): Asked about working capital swings and opportunistic bond repurchases. Galvanoni described the Q1 trend as typical due to compensation payments and said bond buybacks would continue opportunistically as liquidity allows.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will monitor (1) the pace and execution of capacity expansion projects in both the U.S. and Mexico, (2) sustained growth in branded and value-added product sales through retail and e-commerce channels, and (3) the impact of ongoing poultry health and supply chain issues on production costs and segment profitability. Progress in managing volatility in Mexico and the results of European innovation initiatives will also be key markers for tracking execution.
Pilgrim's Pride currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9.2×. At this valuation, is it a buy or sell post earnings? The answer lies in our free research report.
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