Moderna’s third quarter was shaped by sharply lower demand for COVID-19 vaccines, yet the company delivered results above Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings. Management attributed the outperformance to rigorous cost discipline, with CEO Stéphane Bancel noting a 34% reduction in combined cost of sales, R&D, and SG&A compared to last year. The company also cited strong market uptake of its new COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, and the impact of ongoing productivity initiatives. CFO Jamey Mock highlighted that cost reductions came from both operational efficiencies in manufacturing and prioritization across the R&D pipeline.
Is now the time to buy MRNA? Find out in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
Moderna (MRNA) Q3 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $1.02 billion vs analyst estimates of $769.6 million (45.1% year-on-year decline, 32% beat)
- Adjusted EPS: -$0.51 vs analyst estimates of -$2.16 (76.4% beat)
- Adjusted EBITDA: -$208 million vs analyst estimates of -$911.9 million (-20.5% margin, 77.2% beat)
- The company dropped its revenue guidance for the full year to $1.8 billion at the midpoint from $1.85 billion, a 2.7% decrease
- Operating Margin: -25.6%, down from -3.8% in the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $10.44 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Moderna’s Q3 Earnings Call
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Salveen Richter (Goldman Sachs): Asked about the specifics behind recent expense reductions and any pipeline deprioritization. CFO James Mock explained that savings were evenly split between manufacturing efficiencies and selective R&D cuts, with a focus on late-stage programs.
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Huidong Wang (Barclays): Inquired about inventory buildup in the U.S. and lessons from the failed CMV vaccine. Mock emphasized tracking “shots in arms” as the primary metric, while President Stephen Hoge explained that the CMV trial’s immunogenicity data did not translate to clinical benefit.
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Cory Kasimov (Evercore): Questioned slow case accrual in the norovirus study and implications for commercial potential. Hoge said slow accrual was anticipated and does not change the long-term opportunity, as a second trial season is underway.
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Luca Issi (RBC): Challenged the company’s confidence in its 2028 cash breakeven goal amid falling revenue. Mock said reaching breakeven depends on both further cost cuts and new product growth, with more details to be shared at Analyst Day.
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Geoffrey Meacham (Citigroup): Asked about prioritizing ROI in the pipeline and future rare disease investments. Hoge explained that large Phase III vaccine trials are on hold until breakeven is achieved, with selective investment in oncology and rare disease programs that fit within current spending plans.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In the coming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the progress and revenue contribution from new international manufacturing partnerships, (2) regulatory and commercial milestones for the flu and combination flu/COVID vaccines, and (3) further advancements or setbacks in late-stage oncology and rare disease trials. Execution on cost reduction plans and the pace of diversification beyond COVID vaccines will remain critical markers for assessing Moderna’s transition strategy.
Moderna currently trades at $26.64, up from $23.53 just before the earnings. Is the company at an inflection point that warrants a buy or sell? See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free for active Edge members).
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