ORANGE, Calif., Dec. 11, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Chapman University today released the full results of its highly anticipated 2026 U.S. Economic Forecast, an independent, model-driven outlook used by business and policy leaders for 48 years, offering vital insights as the nation faces one of its most unpredictable economic periods.
Presented by President Emeritus and Professor of Business and Economics Jim Doti, Ph.D., the Chapman Economic Forecast projects real GDP growth of 2.0% in 2026 (vs. 1.8% in 2025). The anticipated growth is driven by record-setting investments in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and sustained consumer spending from a $55 trillion surge in household wealth since 2020. These are just a few elements powering the U.S. economy into 2026 despite ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and interest rates.
Key Takeaways:
- Technology Investment Fuels Opportunity: Record spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is expected to create new jobs and business opportunities, helping to keep the economy growing even as other sectors face headwinds. This wave of innovation could lead to new industries and more demand for skilled workers around the country.
- Rising Household Wealth Supports Spending: American families, especially those who own homes or investments, have seen their wealth grow sharply over the past five years. This has helped many households weather higher prices and interest rates, keeping consumer spending strong, a vital engine for the broader economy.
- Tariffs Mean Some Goods May Cost More: Recent increases in tariffs, the highest in nearly a century, are likely to raise costs for certain imported products. This could affect both businesses that rely on overseas materials and consumers who may see higher prices on everyday goods.
- Job Growth Slows, but Labor Market Remains Stable: While the job market is expected to remain generally healthy, Chapman’s forecast suggests hiring may slow in 2026. Most people looking for work should still be able to find jobs, but wage growth may moderate, and some industries could see less expansion.
- Brighter Prospects for Homebuyers: As mortgage rates are forecasted to dip below 6% in 2026, buying a home may become more affordable for many families. This could spark a recovery in the housing market and make homeownership a reality for more Americans, especially in regions like California and Orange County.
- Top Cities for Growth: Atlanta, Tampa, Raleigh and Charlotte, NC, and Salt Lake City are the leading larger cities for job seekers and businesses, with strong economic and population growth expected in 2026. Louisville, Oklahoma City, Providence, Hartford, and Kansas City are the top five smaller-sized cities projected for job growth next year.
According to Chapman economists, the 2026 outlook underscores the value of disciplined forecasting backed by nearly five decades of independent economic modeling.
“With the benefit of having three full econometric models, we have an advantage in producing accurate and reliable forecasts,” said Doti, one of the world’s leading economists. “Chapman prides itself on quality and rigor, and this level of excellence extends to our long-running economic forecast, which provides valuable insights, making it a trusted resource for business leaders, investors, and policymakers.”
“With mortgage rates projected to dip below 6 percent in 2026, our forecast suggests a meaningful recovery in home sales is on the horizon,” added Dr. Raymond Sfeir, Ph.D., Director of the Anderson Center for Economic Research at Chapman University. “Lower borrowing costs will make homeownership more accessible for many families and could help stabilize prices in key markets.”
“As we look ahead to 2026, investors will need to navigate a landscape shaped by both new opportunities and persistent risks,” said Fadel Lawandy, Director of the C. Larry Hoag Center for Real Estate and Finance at Chapman University. “Staying disciplined and avoiding overexposure to any single sector will be key to managing volatility and capturing long-term growth.”
Interviews with Professor Jim Doti and members of the Chapman Economic Forecast team are available upon request.
Interviews with Dr. Jim Doti and members of the Chapman Economic Forecast team, as well as the full 2026 Economic Forecast, charts, analysis, b-roll, soundbites, and photos, are available upon request.
About Chapman University
Founded in 1861, Chapman University is a nationally ranked private university in Orange, California, about 30 miles south of Los Angeles. Chapman serves nearly 10,000 undergraduate and graduate students, with a 12:1 student-to-faculty ratio. Students can choose from over 100 areas of study within 11 colleges for a personalized education. Chapman is categorized by the Carnegie Classification as an R2 “high research activity” institution. Students at Chapman learn directly from distinguished world-class faculty including Nobel Prize winners, MacArthur fellows, published authors and Academy Award winners. The campus has produced a Rhodes Scholar, been named a top producer of Fulbright Scholars, and hosts a chapter of Phi Beta Kappa, the nation’s oldest and most prestigious honor society. Chapman also includes the Harry and Diane Rinker Health Science Campus in Irvine. The university features the No. 4 film school and No. 66 business school in the U.S. Learn more about Chapman University: www.chapman.edu.
Media Contact:
Bob Hitchcock, Director of Strategic Communications
rhitchcock@chapman.edu
407-388-4657
