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Schwab Trading Activity Index™: January Score Kicks off the New Year With a Slump

Published 12 hours ago via Business Wire

Schwab clients were net sellers in January, reducing exposure in the Information Technology and Communications sectors while net buying Energy, Real Estate and Utilities

The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 49.45 in January, down from its score of 51.16 in December. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.

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The reading for the four-week period ending January 31, 2025, ranks “moderate low” compared to historic averages.

“Schwab clients took a fairly defensive approach in January,” said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading & Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. “We saw many responding to the month’s sometimes-contradictory headlines and economic reports by rotating out of higher-beta names. When the markets took a dip mid-month, we didn’t see the same kind of buying behavior we did during last summer’s pullback, although later in the month, many did seem to take advantage of the opportunity to buy AI names at a discount. Clients appear to be taking a selective approach and are in large part proceeding into the new year with caution.”

The S&P 500 stumbled out of the gate in January, losing almost 1% from the December closing level by mid-month amid inflation worries that drove the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield to a 14-month intraday high of 4.8% on January 14. Rising yields may have reflected concerns about policy proposals on tariffs and immigration from the incoming presidential administration, as well as the Federal Reserve's hawkish December meeting and a stall in previous progress against inflation.

Relatively benign U.S. December inflation data allowed yields to ease and the markets rebounded in mid-January after the new administration refrained from imposing immediate tariffs on imports from China and other countries. Solid earnings from major U.S. banks, airlines, communication services, and info tech firms helped the markets recover to new highs, and the 10-year yield dipped below 4.6%. In the final week of the STAX reporting period, however, the S&P 500 dropped about 1% after the January Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting featured a pause in rate cuts and news of China's DeepSeek AI technology bruised AI-associated tech names.

Wall Street's early January setbacks coincided with a mild increase in volatility. The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose to just above 22 intraday on January 13, the day the SPX hit its monthly intraday low below 5,800 and down more than 1% from the start of the year. New restrictions imposed early in the month on U.S. chip exports led to tech weakness and rising volatility ahead of reports on consumer and producer inflation for December, both of which were ultimately relatively tame. The inflation data, along with solid earnings from major U.S. banks later that week, helped temper volatility, and the VIX fell below 15 in late January before rebounding above 22 on an intraday basis following the DeepSeek news that shook the market on January 27. The VIX flagged for the remainder of that week and closed the month below 18.

Popular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:

  • NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)
  • Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)
  • Apple Inc. (AAPL)
  • Tesla Inc. (TSLA)
  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)

Names net sold by Schwab clients during the period included:

  • Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
  • Boeing Co. (BA)
  • Bank of America Corp. (BAC)
  • Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. (WBA)
  • Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)

About the STAX

The STAX value is calculated based on a complex proprietary formula. Each month, Schwab pulls a sample from its client base of millions of funded accounts, which includes accounts that completed a trade in the past month. The holdings and positions of this statistically significant sample are evaluated to calculate individual scores, and the median of those scores represents the monthly STAX.

For more information on the Schwab Trading Activity Index, please visit www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax. Additionally, Schwab clients can chart the STAX using the symbol $STAX in either the thinkorswim® or thinkorswim Mobile platforms.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.

Historical data should not be used alone when making investment decisions. Please consult other sources of information and consider your individual financial position and goals before making an independent investment decision.

The STAX is not a tradable index. The STAX should not be used as an indicator or predictor of future client trading volume or financial performance for Schwab.

About Charles Schwab

At Charles Schwab, we believe in the power of investing to help individuals create a better tomorrow. We have a history of challenging the status quo in our industry, innovating in ways that benefit investors and the advisors and employers who serve them, and championing our clients’ goals with passion and integrity.

More information is available at aboutschwab.com. Follow us on X, Facebook, YouTube, and LinkedIn.

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