Early Data Shows U.S. Black Friday In-Store Traffic Down 3.6% YoY, as Shoppers Delay Big Purchases and Prioritize Essentials, According to RetailNext

RetailNext, the leading in-store traffic analytics provider used by 560+ of the world’s most popular brands, today announced early insights from Black Friday Weekend 2025. Initial data reveals an average of -5.3% year-over-year decrease in in-store foot traffic across Black Friday and Saturday, offering a view into shoppers who are spending with precision and prioritizing value.

Initial year-over-year results spanning insights from tens of thousands of stores that have RetailNext’s technology reveal:

“Black Friday 2025 didn’t kill the holiday; it changed how shoppers approached it,” said Joe Shasteen, Global Head of Advanced Analytics at RetailNext. “Foot traffic was down 3.6% on Friday and 8.6% on Saturday, but that wasn’t disinterest, it was intention. Shoppers showed they’re done with the impulse-driven, one-day frenzy. Prices, tariffs, and tighter budgets pushed people to shop with discipline, not adrenaline, and they responded by turning Black Friday into a value calculation.”

One of the clearest signals is the 3.6% drop on Black Friday, which was meaningfully better than the 6.2% decline seen from Sunday through Wednesday (11/23–11/26). It shows that even in a cautious year, shoppers are still willing to attend major promotional events; they’re simply being more selective about when those events are worth the trip.

“Despite the declines, Black Friday again delivered the highest in-store traffic of any day this year, reaffirming its role as the anchor of the holiday shopping season, but the weekend’s performance was shaped more by real-world factors than waning interest,” added Shasteen. “Consumers are still willing to shop, they’re just demanding proof it’s worth leaving the house. Retailers who treated November as a month-long build, rather than a single-day spectacle, saw the strongest in-store performance.”

Category performance reveals the same disciplined mindset. Apparel was nearly flat on Black Friday specifically (-0.7%), outperforming more discretionary sectors like home (-9.8% weekend average), footwear (-6.0% weekend average), and health and beauty (-4.7% weekend average) as households prioritized essentials and delayed big-ticket or nice-to-have purchases.

Historical Context for 2025

This year’s Black Friday performance sits at the intersection of several national trends. Consumers aren’t pulling back; they’re shifting their spending. Notably, the 2025 Consumer Price Index report indicates rising costs across essential items like shelter, food, utilities, and transportation. These increases pushed households toward sharper tradeoffs.

• Weather volatility is directly shaping retail outcomes. A powerful snowstorm across the Midwest on Friday night into Saturday sent traffic plunging over 42% on Saturday, demonstrating how climate events now have more immediate, measurable impacts on brick-and-mortar performance.
• Inflation may be cooling on paper, but effects remain high. Even modest tariff increases earlier this year drove up category-level pricing for apparel, home goods, and footwear, the very categories that saw some of the sharpest traffic drops.
• Retailers trained shoppers to expect month-long deals. Shoppers moved earlier in November, drawing clear lines on what they considered a “real deal,” and were willing to walk away if the math didn’t add up.
• The value-driven consumer is now the default consumer. Discretionary categories such as home (-15.5%) and health & beauty (-9.6%) saw some of the steepest declines on Saturday, specifically, as households prioritized essentials.

RetailNext will release additional insights, including sales data, throughout the week as more data becomes available. All statistics are subject to change as retailers continue to report updates.

Data Methodology

Derived from data collected at tens of thousands of U.S. stores across hundreds of brands operating on the RetailNext smart store platform, the data reflects in-store trends across a wide variety of retail segments, from major big-box brands to standalone and specialty retail operations. Metrics exclude automobiles, petroleum, and warehouse clubs, and include stores across the U.S. that were open both this year and last year.

About RetailNext

The first retail vertical IoT platform to bring e-commerce style shopper analytics to brick-and-mortar stores, brands, and malls, RetailNext is a pioneer in focusing entirely on optimizing the shopper experience. Through its centralized SaaS platform, RetailNext automatically collects and analyzes shopper behavior data, providing retailers with insight to improve the shopper experience in real-time.

More than 560 retailers in over 100 countries have adopted RetailNext's analytics software and retail expertise to better understand the shopper journey in order to increase same-store sales, reduce theft and eliminate unnecessary costs. RetailNext is headquartered in Campbell, California.

Learn more at retailnext.net.

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