Is Progressive Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Valued at a market cap of $132.8 billion, The Progressive Corporation (PGR) is an insurance company that provides personal and commercial automobile insurance, along with property and specialty insurance products. The Mayfield Village, Ohio-based company is known for its data-driven underwriting, telematics programs such as Snapshot, and competitive pricing models that tailor premiums based on individual risk profiles.

Companies worth $10 billion or more are typically classified as “large-cap stocks,” and PGR fits the label perfectly, with its market cap exceeding this threshold, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the insurance - property & casualty industry. The company’s focus on technology, customer analytics, and efficiency supports sustained growth and profitability in the highly competitive insurance industry.

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Despite its notable strength, this insurance giant has dipped 21.8% from its 52-week high of $292.99, reached on Mar. 17. Shares of PGR have declined 6.9% over the past three months, considerably underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s ($DOWI) 4.4% uptick during the same time frame.

In the longer term, PGR has fallen 14.5% over the past 52 weeks, considerably lagging behind DOWI's 5.7% return over the same time period. Moreover, on a YTD basis, shares of PGR are down 4.4%, compared to DOWI’s 11.5% surge.

To confirm its bearish trend, PGR has been trading below its 200-day moving average since early July and has remained below its 50-day moving average since early June, with slight fluctuations.

PGR’s shares plunged 5.8% on Oct. 15, after its weaker-than-expected Q3 earnings release. The company’s overall revenue improved 14.2% year-over-year to $22.5 billion, but slightly fell short of Wall Street expectations. Meanwhile, its EPS also increased 12.1% from the year-ago quarter to $4.45, but missed consensus estimates by a notable margin of 16%. Other key indicators, including the combined ratio and net premiums earned, also came in behind analyst forecasts, further lowering investor confidence.

PGR has also underperformed its rival, The Allstate Corporation (ALL), which gained 2.9% over the past 52 weeks and 10.9% on a YTD basis.

Despite PGR’s recent underperformance, analysts remain moderately optimistic about its prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy” from the 24 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $266.92 suggests a 16.5% premium to its current price levels.

On the date of publication, Neharika Jain did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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