Michael Burry, the popular investor of “Big Short” fame, is known for his bearish stance. And why should he not be? It has served him so well that it has spawned a movie based on his life, an asset management company with an AUM exceeding $100 million (now shut down), and worldwide recognition, while also earning scathing reactions from the executives of the companies whose stocks he has shorted over the years, Palantir (PLTR) CEO Alex Karp being the latest one.
But in a recent post on the online publishing platform Substack, Burry presented an often-ignored paradigm of his identity as an investor—the bullish one. He identified four stocks that he reckons could be beneficial for investors in the long term. Populated with popular names such as Lululemon (LULU) and Fannie Mae (FNMA), there is a name from the fintech industry that has been noteworthy.
About Shift4 Payments
Founded in 1999, Shift4 Payments (FOUR) is an integrated payments and commerce technology company that provides payment processing, point-of-sale and commerce software/hardware, payment gateway services, and vertical solutions for restaurants, hospitality, retail, venues/entertainment, and travel.
With a market cap of $6.5 billion, FOUR stock is down 29.5% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis.
So, is it just deep undervaluation, or has Burry found something valuable buried under the hood of this Pennsylvania-based company? Let's find out.
Shift4's Financials Are on the Right Path
Shift4 may have had a tough 2025 in terms of share price performance, but its stock has more than doubled since its listing in June 2020. Moreover, the past three years have seen the company reporting revenue and earnings CAGRs of 27.86% and 89.10%, respectively.
Meanwhile, the latest Q3 2025 results were marked by yearly growth on both the top line and bottom line, even though the former came in behind the Street's expectations. Gross revenues of $1.18 billion represented a year-over-year (YoY) growth rate of 29.4%, while earnings saw a slower growth of 5.8% in the same period to $1.47 per share. This was above the consensus estimate of an EPS of $1.45.
Payments-based revenue, the core revenue segment of the company with almost 90% of the overall revenues, came in at $1.06 billion, up 31.1% from the prior year. Subscription revenues inched up to $118.9 million from $102.4 million in the year-ago period.
Net cash from operating activities increased as well to $171.8 million in Q3 2025 compared to $142.5 million in Q3 2024. Overall, Shift4 exited the September '25 quarter with a cash balance of $1.51 billion, which was higher than its short-term debt levels of about $700 million, thus alleviating liquidity concerns.
Moreover, growth projections for the company are also much higher than the sector median. Notably, analysts are expecting Shift4 to have forward revenue and earnings growth rates of 26.93% and 32.52%, whereas the sector median rates are pegged at 7.09% and 10.61%, respectively.
Solid Growth Enablers
With over 200,000 merchant customers and payment volume reaching $54.7 billion in the third quarter of 2025 (a 26% YoY increase), Shift4 serves a wide range of sectors, including hospitality, restaurants, retail, and sports & entertainment. This breadth positions the company as a leading contender to become the preferred payments provider across discretionary spending categories. The diversified industry exposure offers a buffer against macroeconomic headwinds and creates substantial room for further market penetration.
Shift4 occupies dominant positions in several attractive verticals, holding the top share in U.S. hospitality, U.S. sports & entertainment venues, and global luxury retail. Much of this leadership stems from its two flagship solutions: SkyTab and Unified Commerce.
SkyTab represents Shift4’s integrated end-to-end offering for hospitality, restaurants, and event venues. It combines payment processing with full point-of-sale functionality, business management tools, analytics, and marketing capabilities. The platform boasts more than 500 native integrations, enabling merchants to retain existing software and hardware while switching processors. These connections span major delivery applications, leading POS hardware providers, tip-pooling systems, ERP packages, and even selective components of legacy platforms such as Oracle’s Micros hospitality suite.
Unified Commerce, by contrast, is Shift4’s software-centric payments layer designed for maximum compatibility. It can overlay virtually any existing POS or back-end system, often with a single line of integration code, and supports global e-commerce and in-person acceptance out of the box. While Shift4 offers optional hardware, including mobile readers and SkyTab terminals, the core value proposition remains software-first and hardware-agnostic.
Finally, the acquisition of Global Blue earlier this year significantly extends Shift4’s reach into international and luxury retail. Global Blue provides an established gateway into Europe and the high-end segment, and management has moved quickly to capitalize. In Q3 2025, the company secured several marquee luxury-brand wins, signaling a clear intent to accelerate growth in this area. Global Blue’s client roster features premier names such as LVMH (LVMHF), Capri Holdings (CPRI), Tiffany & Co., and Burberry (BRBY.L.EB), with roughly 80% of its volume derived from luxury merchants and average relationships exceeding 20 years.
Analyst Opinion on FOUR Stock
Considering this, analysts have earmarked an overall rating of “Moderate Buy” for the stock, with a mean target price of $96.68, which indicates an upside potential of about 33% from current levels. Out of 24 analysts covering the stock, 15 have a “Strong Buy” rating, one has a “Moderate Buy” rating, seven have a “Hold” rating, and one has a “Strong Sell” rating.
On the date of publication, Pathikrit Bose did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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